Gulf International Forum — "Pipe Dreams and Pecking Orders": Kuwait's lack of a Hormuz bypass and who gets priority on shared Gulf pipelines (September 2026)

KUWAIT IN THE PIECE. In June 2026 KPC's chief executive, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, told an Atlantic Council audience that Kuwait was in discussions with Saudi Arabia and the UAE about expanding their pipeline systems to "accommodate Kuwaiti barrels"; the author places this three months after Kuwait declared force majeure. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar have no export route that avoids Hormuz; Saudi Arabia (East–West pipeline to Yanbu) and the UAE (Fujairah) do.

THE KOC TRANSACTION. In July 2026, the author writes, Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR agreed a $16 billion lease-and-leaseback of KOC's entire pipeline network, taking a 49% stake in a joint venture for 20.5 years under a volume-based tariff; KOC keeps ownership, operational control and exclusive use of the 13 pipelines.

THE ARGUMENT. After Houthi attacks on Yanbu and Jazan from July and drone strikes from southern Iraq on the East–West pipeline on 10–11 September, Saudi Arabia shut the line and rerouted crude via Ain Sukhna and the SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir (about 2.3 million b/d). Allocation of bypass capacity was decided unilaterally by the owner. The author recommends agreeing allocation rules now: protocols for when nominations exceed capacity, firm capacity rights in the tariff with pro-rata curtailment, and force majeure and dispute-resolution provisions. He suggests watching whether the East–West expansion contracts contain third-party access provisions and whether Kuwaiti or Bahraini participation is documented or only announced.

USE IN A REPORT: a signed commentary; GIF states that the views are the author's. It is useful context on Kuwait's export exposure in the 2026 war and on the KOC pipeline transaction; the transaction's terms should be cited to KPC or KOC's own announcements where they are available.

The piece gives the KOC transaction's size and terms, KPC's force majeure and the chief executive's remarks without citing a source for each; they are the author's summary of public reporting. Before any of them is relied on in a report for investors or lenders, cite the Kuwaiti company announcements or the parties' own statements. The piece's larger point, that Kuwait's crude has no route to market except through Hormuz, is a matter of geography and is not in dispute.